How Modi’s US visit will shape ties under Trump 2.0
Shifting from the unpredictability of his earlier ‘Twiplomacy,’ President Trump’s transactional approach in his second term presents a pragmatic backdrop for bilateral talks. This visit by Prime Minister Narendra Modi not only strengthens ties but also strategically aligns US-India relations within a realist geopolitical framework.
Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s state visit to the United States on February 12-13, following an invitation from President Donald Trump, was both notable and well-timed. Modi, who had already spoken with Trump twice, was one of the earliest global leaders to extend congratulations to Trump after his election victory. Their second conversation occurred after Trump extended a personal invitation to Modi, during which they addressed important bilateral, regional, and global topics.
Previously, Indian External Affairs Minister S. Jaishankar visited the U.S. on two occasions, engaging with key figures from the Trump administration to outline the agenda and expectations for the summit meeting. Alongside him, Defense Minister Rajnath Singh and National Security Advisor Ajit Doval held discussions with their American counterparts. Jaishankar was notably the first to meet his equivalent, Marco Rubio, and also took part in the Quad Foreign Ministers’ meeting. With India set to host the next Quad summit, PM Modi is expected to personally invite President Trump to attend. These meetings served as crucial platforms for both nations to openly exchange views on their respective priorities, concerns, and strategic interests, emphasizing the importance of candid and forthright dialogue.
President Trump has shown a preference for using tariffs over military actions, viewing them as strategic leverage in negotiations with international partners, aiming to maximize benefits whose long-term effects remain to be seen. Tariffs and the deportation of illegal immigrants are tactics he actively employs without regard to whether the other parties are allies, adversaries, or somewhere in between. This approach affects various nations differently; for instance, both Canada and Mexico, key partners in NAFTA, as well as European countries, are experiencing economic strain. Meanwhile, China receives distinct attention as discussions continue around a free trade agreement and market access. Other nations remain cautious, hoping to avoid Trump’s assertive policies as he extends his geopolitical interests to areas like Greenland, the Panama Canal, and the Gulf of Mexico, not to mention the significant valuation of Ukrainian critical minerals recorded in U.S. accounts.
The intensification of U.S. sanctions on Iran and the cessation of exemptions for the Chabahar port complicates matters for New Delhi, which is likely to seek further exemptions. Additionally, the U.S. imposition of a 25% tariff on steel and aluminum, along with a universal 10% tax on all imports, could adversely affect the competitiveness of Indian exports. In response, India is contemplating adjusting the import duties on around 30 American products. This situation has led New Delhi to explore the possibility of a minor or sector-specific trade deal that could ensure more stable market access and foster investment avenues. Furthermore, encouraging investments by Indian firms in the U.S. and persuading American companies to establish joint venture operations in India for servicing third-country markets could enhance bilateral ties, aligning with the “America First” and “India First” policies of each country.
India has a well-defined stance on illegal immigration, demonstrating readiness to repatriate its nationals, as evidenced by a recent flight returning a full plane of citizens. However, the method of their repatriation sparked significant discontent domestically, an issue that requires diplomatic addressing at the highest levels. Furthermore, negotiations aimed at simplifying the process for obtaining work visas and ensuring the free movement and welfare of Indian professionals in the U.S. will continue under the framework of the Migration and Mobility Agreement, underscoring the mutual benefits such policies bring to both nations.
Defense, security, and technology transfers constitute key areas of bilateral cooperation. Despite numerous agreements and mechanisms in place, there have been challenges in swiftly securing supplies from the U.S. An example of this slow pace is the GE-414 engine, where technology transfer has been notably sluggish, including under the iCET framework. Addressing these gaps could be beneficial. During the Aero India event, a range of high-tech defense equipment and aircraft, including the F-35, were showcased, with potential sales pitches to India. Historically, India has invested over $25 billion in U.S. defense equipment, and significant agreements enhancing interoperability and collaborative efforts have been established.
Increasing imports of oil and gas from the United States is viewed as a viable strategy to mitigate the trade deficit, a frequent point of contention for Trump. In alignment with this strategy, India has recently lowered import duties on various items, notably Harley Davidson motorcycles, as part of its latest budgetary measures. Moreover, India is keen to enhance collaboration in civil nuclear energy, particularly through the adoption of modular reactors which present significant opportunities for the U.S. market. Concurrently, previous issues related to civil nuclear liability have been addressed, smoothing the path for deeper cooperation. This approach is reflective of a broader strategic vision embodied in the Global Comprehensive Strategic Partnership, prioritizing collaboration over confrontation.
President Trump is often perceived as unpredictable and transactional in his diplomatic dealings. However, in contrast to his first term’s ‘Twiplomacy,’ he appears more predictable in his current term. Viewing his transactional nature through a lens of realism, this predictability can actually be advantageous. Understanding his approach beforehand allows for more effective planning and strategizing, facilitating a more calculated negotiation process where both parties understand the give-and-take dynamics involved.
President Trump frequently emphasizes his opposition to wars, expressing a desire to conclude ongoing conflicts in Eurasia and the Middle East. Similarly, Prime Minister Modi frequently asserts that the current global era should not be one of conflict. This shared perspective provides a basis for both leaders to pursue peace through diplomatic dialogue. Additionally, there is anticipation for President Putin’s visit to India for a summit later in the year, which presents an opportunity for potential discussions between Trump and Putin. Various locations, including Saudi Arabia, the UAE, and Hungary, are considered as possible venues for such a meeting. Proposing New Delhi as a host city positions it as a potential “Peace Capital,” further solidifying its role in global diplomatic efforts.
Stability and security in the Middle East are critically important for India, and collaborative initiatives could lead to beneficial outcomes, including within frameworks like I2U2 and IMEEC, where the U.S. is actively engaged. The issued Joint Statement, which highlights defense, trade and investments, energy cooperation, technology and innovation, and people-to-people ties, sets a clear direction for continued collaboration over the next four years. Additionally, Prime Minister Modi’s interactions with U.S. Vice President JD Vance and his family, including celebrating Vance’s son’s birthday, underscore the importance of personal diplomacy in strengthening bilateral relationships.
The diplomatic agenda is rich and extensive, but the true skill in diplomacy lies in enhancing its appeal strategically. This involves presenting initiatives and collaborations in a way that not only aligns with national interests but also resonates appealingly with international partners, thereby strengthening and enriching the bilateral ties further.
– Anil Trigunayat
