Copernicus, the European Union’s climate service, says October 2026 was 1.75°C warmer than the pre-industrial average, the third consecutive month above 1.5°C. Sea temperatures in the central Pacific’s El Niño region set an all-time record, and 2026 is now almost certain to be only the second calendar year above 1.5°C. For Telangana and Andhra Pradesh, already planning for an El Niño drought, the bulletin is a warning that the coming months may be difficult.
The global climate set another record last month. In its monthly bulletin released on 6 November, the Copernicus Climate Change Service (C3S), run by the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF), reported that October 2026 was the warmest October in its records. The average surface air temperature was 15.35°C:
- 0.90°C above the 1991–2020 average, beating the previous October record, set in 2023, by 0.05°C
- 1.75°C above the 1850–1900 pre-industrial baseline
It was the third month in a row above 1.5°C, after August and September.
“October has continued the pattern of remarkable global warmth, with record global and surface ocean temperatures,” said Samantha Burgess, ECMWF’s Strategic Lead for Climate. “An exceptionally strong El Niño is adding further heat to a climate already warmed by human activities.”
A record in the Pacific
The most striking numbers come from the ocean. Average sea-surface temperature between 60°S and 60°N reached 20.95°C, the highest for any October and the fourth consecutive monthly record. In the Niño-3.4 region of the central equatorial Pacific, the standard measure of El Niño strength, the average temperature was 29.94°C, the highest ever recorded there for any month. The anomaly of +3.21°C beats September’s +2.99°C and, according to coverage of the bulletin, exceeds the peaks of the strong El Niños of 1982–83, 1997–98 and 2015–16. C3S also noted record October temperatures in the northern Indian Ocean.
El Niño is a periodic warming of the eastern and central tropical Pacific that shifts rainfall and temperature patterns worldwide. It also releases heat from the ocean into the atmosphere, temporarily lifting global temperatures on top of the long-term warming caused by greenhouse gases. Citing the World Meteorological Organization, C3S says the current event is expected to peak in December and is almost certain to persist through February 2027. The US National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration’s October outlook described a “strong-to-very strong” El Niño as likely through January–March 2027.
2026 set to exceed 1.5°C
C3S estimates that 2026 will end 1.56–1.61°C above pre-industrial levels. It puts the chance of 2026 exceeding 1.5°C at more than 99%, which would make it only the second calendar year to do so after 2024. It gives about an 80% chance that 2026 will be the second-warmest year on record, and about 20% that it will equal or beat 2024. The average for the 12 months to October is already 1.51°C. Burgess said it was “particularly significant” that the four-year average for 2023–2026 is also expected to exceed 1.5°C.
This does not mean the Paris Agreement’s 1.5°C limit has been breached. That limit refers to long-term warming averaged over about 20 years, not individual years. But each additional year above the line narrows the gap between the short-term readings and the long-term trend.
The food link
The same day, the UN Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO) published figures showing how weather is already reaching food markets. Its Food Price Index eased 1.2% in October to 133.9 points, as cereal prices fell. But sugar prices jumped 6.6% in the month and 28.8% on a year earlier, which FAO attributed partly to concerns that below-normal, uneven monsoon rain will cut India’s sugar output. FAO forecasts world rice production falling 2.5% in 2026/27, the first contraction in four seasons, citing “poor producer margins and El Niño-related adverse weather”. India is the world’s largest rice exporter, and FAO expects higher Indian shipments to support global rice trade.
What it means for Telangana and Andhra Pradesh
El Niño years have historically been associated with weaker monsoons and higher temperatures over much of India, although the relationship is not fixed and each event differs. Telangana is already treating the coming months as a drought risk:
- Water drive: a village-level programme to desilt tanks, build check dams and recharge groundwater from January to July 2027 has been announced.
- Climate conclave: on 8 December, about 200 scientists and officials will draw up a drought action plan.
- Visible stress: Hyderabad has seen borewells running dry and tanker prices doubling in recent days, and poultry feed costs have risen sharply.
Andhra Pradesh faces a different set of problems. Its coastal districts are still recovering from Cyclones Arnab and Murasu. The record warmth of the northern Indian Ocean reported by C3S matters for cyclone intensity, although the bulletin itself draws no such link and NSH does not attribute this season’s storms to it.
NSH could not obtain the India Meteorological Department’s latest seasonal outlook for South India before publication. Readers should look to IMD, not global bulletins, for forecasts for their own districts.
Into COP31
The bulletin arrives three days before the UN climate summit, COP31, opens in Antalya, Türkiye, on 9 November. Negotiators will meet against a backdrop of record temperatures and a World Meteorological Organization finding last month that carbon dioxide concentrations reached 426.8 parts per million in 2025. For India, the summit will test how it balances its development needs against pressure for faster electrification and emissions cuts. The El Niño drought now forming over its own farmland is a reminder that adaptation matters as much as mitigation.
