The chief of the Central Electricity Authority warns that 87 power plants are holding critically low coal stocks, and that India may need about 150 GW of coal capacity by 2036, far more than planned. On the same evening, the gas regulator published draft rules to blend up to 5 per cent hydrogen into household piped gas. The two announcements show the tension at the heart of India’s energy transition: meeting demand now while building the fuels of the future.
India’s electricity system is having a difficult autumn. A weak monsoon has cut hydropower, dry and hot weather has raised demand, and coal plants are running harder than ever. On Tuesday, 13 October, the head of the country’s power-planning body set out what that means.
Speaking at an industry event, Central Electricity Authority (CEA) Chairman Ghanshyam Prasad said electricity demand is running 45–50 GW higher than a year ago. As of 11 October, 87 power plants had critical coal stocks, holding 20.8 million tonnes in total, about 34 per cent of the normative requirement. “The stock is depleting almost every day,” Prasad said. Plants are running so continuously, he added, that “we are not finding time to put them on the maintenance cycle.”
A bigger coal estimate
The most striking figure concerned the future. Prasad said the CEA’s earlier estimate was that India would need about 97 GW of coal-based capacity by 2036, measured against a 2023 baseline. That estimate now stands at about 150 GW. He argued for a balanced mix of baseload sources, adding nuclear and pumped-storage hydro to coal rather than relying on any single source.
The figures sit alongside rapid renewable growth. India added more than 50 GW of renewable capacity in the last financial year, and an analysis by the Centre for Research on Energy and Clean Air (CREA), reported earlier this week, found that solar and wind together generated more than 100 billion units in a single quarter for the first time. But solar output does not cover evening peaks, and wind and hydro are seasonal. NTPC Chairman Gurdeep Singh said peak-demand hours have stretched from about four to 10–12 hours a day, making storage essential. NTPC’s coal-based generation is up about 10 per cent this year and about 18 per cent this month, he said, and “it is difficult to maintain the coal stock”.
Prasad also highlighted a less visible challenge: grid stability. As more inverter-based renewable capacity is connected, the grid loses some of the inertia that large spinning generators provide. Technologies such as grid-forming inverters, harmonic filters and synchronous condensers are being added to manage that, and their combined effect must be planned carefully.
The weather adds uncertainty in both directions. IMD expects a very strong El Niño to persist through December, prolonging dry, warm conditions and keeping hydropower output low. At the same time, a Bloomberg report carried by ThePrint on 13 October, based on European forecasts, suggested that the El Niño could bring a warmer-than-usual winter to India, which would reduce heating demand in the north and might ease some of the strain. Neither forecast gives the CEA much room: winter is normally when plants rebuild coal stocks and schedule maintenance, and both are already behind.
Coal India said on 11 October that it was not short-supplying NTPC, suggesting that logistics and plant-level stocking, as well as production, are part of the picture.
Hydrogen in the kitchen pipeline
Hours later, the Petroleum and Natural Gas Regulatory Board (PNGRB) published draft guidelines for blending hydrogen into domestic piped natural gas (D-PNG. The central rule is a cap: “No commercial supply under these Guidelines shall exceed 5.0 percent.”
The draft covers the chain from the point where hydrogen is received, through the blending facility, to domestic installations. It excludes hydrogen production, transport and storage upstream, as well as compressed natural gas (CNG), vehicle fuel, transmission pipelines, pure hydrogen supply and non-domestic piped gas. It also sets rules on gas quality, homogeneity, odorisation and emergency isolation. Blended gas must not dilute existing city gas distribution obligations on safety, metering, billing and complaint handling. The regulator may reduce the blend, suspend hydrogen supply or require a return to natural gas if evidence, incidents, complaints, billing errors or uncertainty undermine safety. Consumers, local authorities and emergency services must be told in advance about blend levels, billing and safety guidance.
The cautious design reflects the physics. Hydrogen has a wider flammability range than methane and burns faster, and it carries less energy per unit volume, which affects billing based on volume. Small blends are generally considered compatible with existing appliances and distribution pipes, which is why many countries’ trials have started at low percentages. The consultation deadline was not reported.
How the two stories connect
The juxtaposition is instructive. Hydrogen blending at 5 per cent in household gas will displace only a small amount of natural gas, and it does nothing for the coal-stock problem. But it builds a regulatory framework and a market for green hydrogen, which India’s National Green Hydrogen Mission aims to scale up. NTPC said work is under way on its green hydrogen hub at Pudimadaka in Andhra Pradesh, and that it is in talks with potential buyers in Japan, South Korea and Germany. “I believe at some point of time this will become a viable business,” Singh said.
Meanwhile, the CEA’s revised coal estimate is a reminder that rising demand from air-conditioning, data centres and electrification can outrun clean supply. NTPC plans to invest about ₹17 lakh crore over the next decade across thermal, renewable, nuclear, storage and hydrogen.
What to watch
Coal stock levels through the El Niño winter; any CEA revision to the national electricity plan; the PNGRB consultation timeline; and whether the forecast warmer-than-usual winter eases or worsens power demand.
–Sudhakar Bhima
Key facts
- CEA (Business Standard, 13 Oct, 19:03 IST): 87 plants with critical coal stocks as of 11 Oct; 20.8 Mt, about 34% of normative; demand 45–50 GW above last year; coal capacity estimate for 2036 raised from about 97 GW to about 150 GW.
- NTPC: peak hours now 10–12 a day; coal generation up about 10% (about 18% this month); about ₹17 lakh crore planned over ten years; Pudimadaka (AP) green hydrogen hub under construction.
- PNGRB draft (Business Standard, 13 Oct, 21:18 IST): maximum 5.0% hydrogen in domestic PNG; CNG, automotive, transmission pipelines and non-domestic PNG excluded; regulator may suspend blending on safety grounds.
- Renewables: more than 50 GW added last financial year.
