The 2026 south-west monsoon ended 12.6 per cent below normal — the first “deficient” season since 2015. Andhra Pradesh has declared 388 mandals drought-hit, Maharashtra will ration water from 16 October, and Telangana’s agricultural university is preparing to steer farmers towards hardier crops.
India’s monsoon is not merely weather; it is the country’s most important economic and ecological event of the year. This season, it failed in the way meteorologists had warned it might. According to India Meteorological Department (IMD) data, the June–September south-west monsoon delivered 759.4 millimetres of rain, 12.6 per cent below the long-period average. That places the season below the 90 per cent threshold that IMD classifies as deficient — the first time since 2015, which was also a strong El Niño year.
The national average conceals sharp regional contrasts. Reported IMD figures show East and North-East India about 26 per cent short of normal, Karnataka about 35 per cent short, and large parts of the southern peninsula and western India suffering long dry spells, depleted soil moisture and crop stress.
The El Niño connection
El Niño is the warm phase of a Pacific Ocean cycle in which sea-surface temperatures in the central and eastern equatorial Pacific rise above normal. That warming weakens the Walker Circulation, the large east–west atmospheric loop over the tropics, and tends to suppress monsoon rainfall over India. Historically, roughly 60 per cent of El Niño years since 1951 have produced below-normal or deficient Indian monsoons. IMD had forecast below-normal rainfall in spring, and US agency NOAA’s September assessment indicated a very high likelihood of a strong El Niño continuing through the 2026–27 northern winter — which matters for post-monsoon rainfall and for next year’s planning.
Andhra Pradesh: more than half the state in drought
On 2 October, Andhra Pradesh Chief Secretary G. Sai Prasad declared 388 mandals across 21 districts drought-affected for the kharif season, attributing the deficit to El Niño. Of these, 283 mandals are classified as severely affected and 105 as moderately affected — about 56 per cent of the state’s 688 mandals. Drought is most severe in Rayalaseema and in the combined Guntur and Prakasam districts, while Vizianagaram and Anakapalli in north Andhra are also affected. Reports cite crop losses in paddy, maize and coconut. District authorities have been told to notify affected mandals through gazettes in English and Telugu, the formal step that triggers relief measures, input subsidies and agricultural-credit support. Opposition parties have argued that more areas, notably parts of Nellore, should be included.
How a drought is declared
A drought declaration is not simply a statement that rainfall was low. Under the Central Government’s drought-management framework, states assess several indicators together: rainfall departure and dry-spell length, remote-sensing vegetation indices, soil moisture, the area actually sown and, finally, ground-truthing of crop damage. Only when a combination of these thresholds is crossed can a mandal or taluk be notified, which in turn unlocks relief from state and national disaster-response funds. Andhra Pradesh’s early declaration, made before the season’s crop-cutting experiments are complete, reflects how severe the indicators already were: reported June–August rainfall in the state was about 53 per cent below normal. The opposite risk — declarations delayed until crops have already failed — has been a recurring criticism of drought response in India.
Maharashtra: rationing to August 2027
Maharashtra’s response, reported on 7 October, shows how far planning now extends. The state has directed municipal corporations, municipalities and gram panchayats to cut water supply by at least 10 per cent from 16 October, with deeper cuts possible, so that stored water lasts until 31 August 2027. Drinking water has top priority, followed by livestock and fodder, then irrigation for rabi food grains. Industries must reuse or recycle at least 30 per cent of the water they consume, sewage treatment plants must run at full capacity, and treated wastewater is to replace fresh water for gardening, construction and washing. Drought conditions have been declared in about three-quarters of the state’s 358 sub-districts, and more than ₹6,700 crore in relief has been announced.
Telangana: changing what is sown
In Telangana, Professor Jayashankar Telangana Agricultural University (PJTAU) is preparing a crop-diversification programme, “Innovation to Impact”, designed explicitly with El Niño conditions in mind. Vice-Chancellor Aldas Janaiah said the programme, part of the Central Government’s Khet Bachao initiative, will be launched by Agriculture Minister Tummala Nageswara Rao between 18 and 31 October. It will focus initially on pulses and oilseeds — crops that typically need less water than paddy — and will run through twelve regional research centres, including Palem, Tandur, Madhira, Warangal, Adilabad and Jagtial, with scientists delivering improved varieties and production practices directly to farmers and monitoring results in the field. The university is seeking about ₹25 crore from the state government.
What happens next
Three factors will shape the coming months: reservoir levels, the north-east monsoon (which matters greatly for Andhra Pradesh’s coastal and Rayalaseema districts and for Tamil Nadu) and the persistence of El Niño. Weak post-monsoon rains would deepen the stress on rabi sowing, drinking-water supply and hydropower. Food inflation has already been rising, and reduced output of pulses, oilseeds and some cereals would add to the pressure.
The scientific lesson is not new, but it is increasingly urgent. Forecasting has improved enough that governments can act early — Andhra Pradesh’s declaration and Maharashtra’s 11-month water plan are examples. The harder task is structural: shifting cropping patterns away from water-intensive crops in vulnerable regions, expanding micro-irrigation and wastewater reuse, and restoring groundwater. PJTAU’s programme is a small but sensible step in that direction; its value will be measured by adoption in farmers’ fields, not by launch ceremonies.
– Sudhakar Garlanka
Key facts
– 2026 monsoon: 759.4 mm, 12.6% below long-period average; first deficient season since 2015 (IMD)
– Andhra Pradesh: 388 mandals in 21 districts drought-hit (283 severe, 105 moderate), declared 2 Oct
– Maharashtra: ≥10% water-supply cut from 16 Oct; industries to recycle ≥30%; plan runs to 31 Aug 2027
– Telangana: PJTAU “Innovation to Impact” crop diversification, launch 18–31 Oct, 12 regional centres
– Driver: El Niño, with a strong event expected to persist into winter 2026–27
