The India Meteorological Department expects a low-pressure area over the Bay of Bengal today and gives a high probability that it will become a depression around 25 October, with gale-force winds over the west-central Bay from 26 October. Coastal Andhra Pradesh has been told to prepare. Inland, Hyderabad has received 2.8 mm of rain this month, 97% below normal, and a residential university in Basar has sent 9,000 students home for want of drinking water.
Two very different weather stories are unfolding in the Telugu states this week. Over the sea, conditions are building for what may become the first significant storm system of the northeast monsoon. Over land, an El Niño year has left Telangana with almost no October rain, reservoirs at historic lows and institutions rationing water.
What IMD expects
According to IMD’s evening bulletin of 22 October, as reported by Pragativadi and KalingaTV, an upper-air cyclonic circulation over the south-east and adjoining east-central Bay of Bengal and the Andaman Islands is very likely to move west-north-westwards. A low-pressure area is expected to form over the same region around 23 October.
IMD’s extended-range outlook gives a “high probability of cyclogenesis” between 23 and 29 October. The system is expected to become a depression around the morning of 25 October and then to intensify further over the following three days as it continues west-north-westwards.
The marine warnings show the expected progression:
- Evening of 23 October: winds of 35–45 km/h, gusting to 55 km/h, over the east-central and adjoining south-east Bay
- 24–25 October: strengthening to 50–60 km/h, gusting to 70 km/h, with very rough seas over the central Bay
- From 26 October: gale-force winds of 70–80 km/h, gusting to 90 km/h, with high to very high seas over the west-central and adjoining east-central Bay until 28 October
Fishermen have been advised to keep away from the east-central and south-east Bay from the evening of 23 October to 25 October, and from the west-central Bay between 26 and 28 October.
What it means for Andhra Pradesh
The west-central Bay of Bengal lies off the coast of Andhra Pradesh and southern Odisha. Prakhar Jain, managing director of the Andhra Pradesh State Disaster Management Authority, said the system could bring heavy rain to coastal Andhra in the coming days and asked fishermen not to go to sea from Sunday, according to The Hans India. Those already at sea were told to return before then.
It is too early to say whether the system will reach cyclone strength, or where and when it might cross the coast. IMD’s forecast track points west-north-westwards, but systems at this stage frequently change speed, direction and intensity. Sakshi Post urged readers to rely on official warnings rather than unverified reports of landfall. In IMD’s classification, a depression has sustained winds of 31–49 km/h; a system becomes a cyclonic storm at 62 km/h or more.
The late-October Bay of Bengal is one of the most active cyclone seasons for the Indian east coast. Disaster managers in Andhra Pradesh and Odisha typically begin pre-positioning resources once IMD issues a depression forecast, and the next 48 hours of bulletins will determine the scale of preparation.
A parched interior
Inland, the picture is the reverse. According to figures reported by Siasat on 22 October, Hyderabad received 2.8 mm of rain between 1 and 21 October against a normal of about 114 mm for the month, a deficit of 97%. Telangana as a whole received 3.5 mm against a normal of 75.6 mm for the period, a 95% shortfall. Twelve districts, including Karimnagar, Nizamabad, Medak, Sangareddy, Siddipet and Medchal-Malkajgiri, recorded no rain at all. Even Wanaparthy, the wettest district, was 78% below normal. Siasat did not name the source of the data.
The contrast with recent years is stark. In October 2020, a month remembered for severe urban flooding, Hyderabad received 400.7 mm.
When the taps run dry
The consequences are now reaching institutions. On 22 October, Telangana Today reported that Rajiv Gandhi University of Knowledge and Technologies (RGUKT) at Basar, in Nirmal district, had extended its Dasara holidays indefinitely. The residential campus houses about 9,000 students. It currently receives about 15 lakh litres of water a day against a requirement of 25 lakh litres, after the irrigation tank that supplies it dried up. The order cites “extraordinary circumstances surrounding El Niño”. Authorities plan to draw water from the nearby Godavari.
The episode follows NSH’s report on 22 October that the Singur reservoir, a key source for Hyderabad, has received barely 3 TMC ft of water this year. The Telangana government has prioritised drinking water over irrigation and set up a cabinet sub-committee on drought. On 22 October Deputy Chief Minister Bhatti Vikramarka also set a target of 140 million units a day of thermal generation, as officials prepare for reduced hydropower.
The larger river systems offer little more comfort. Ahead of Monday’s Krishna River Management Board meeting, Andhra Pradesh officials put storage at Srisailam, the main reservoir shared by the two states on the Krishna, at 57.92 TMC ft, or about 27% of its 215 TMC ft capacity, according to Deccan Chronicle.
Will the storm help?
It is natural to hope that a Bay of Bengal system will break the drought, but the geography is not encouraging for Telangana’s driest districts. Systems that move west-north-west from the central Bay usually bring their heaviest rain to coastal Andhra Pradesh and Odisha. How much reaches the Telangana plateau depends on where the system crosses the coast and how quickly it weakens over land. Hyderabad’s Meteorological Centre has so far forecast only light to moderate rain for parts of Telangana on 23 and 24 October.
Heavy rain over coastal Andhra Pradesh would also bring its own risks to standing kharif crops, low-lying settlements and fishing communities. The same system that offers relief in one place may cause damage in another.
What to watch
- IMD’s bulletins today on whether the low has formed, and its forecast track;
- Whether IMD upgrades the outlook to a depression or cyclone warning for the Andhra Pradesh or Odisha coasts;
- Rainfall in the Manjeera, Krishna and Godavari catchments, ahead of the Krishna and Godavari river boards’ meetings on 26 and 30 October.
